San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Pick – 8/2/2025
The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will face off at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon. The Giants took the first game of this three-game set in Queens on Friday. They will look to get another win in a matchup that is expected to be as close as Friday’s 10-inning game was. For a full breakdown of this game, including my Giants vs Mets prediction, continue reading below.
Our Giants vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Over 8
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga vs Kai‑Wei Teng
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: SNY and NBCS‑BA
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Kodai Senga has been excellent since returning from a hamstring injury. The Mets starter is 7-3 this year and holding a 2.00 ERA. He’s averaging just under a strikeout per inning and will look to keep the Giants off-balance in this game. Kai‑Wei Teng makes his first MLB start after AAA promotion and could be on a short leash if he struggles early on.
Key Players
- Juan Soto leads the Mets with 25 home runs. He is batting .248 with a .383 OBP and .486 SLG.
- Pete Alonso also drives the New York lineup with 23 home runs and 83 RBI.
- Wilmer Flores has been a steady presence for San Francisco with 12 home runs and 59 RBI. He is day‑to‑day with left hamstring tightness.
- Willy Adames has 16 homers to lead the Giants so far this season.
Recent team streaks
- Giants: San Francisco snapped a six‑game losing streak with a 4‑3 extra‑innings win on Friday. They’ve gone 9‑15 in July and 2‑10 after the All‑Star break.
- Mets: New York dropped Friday’s opener in extra innings after rallying from a 3‑0 deficit. New York has struggled to find consistency at the plate.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Kodai Senga | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Pete Alonso | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mets are 3-1 against the Giants so far this season.
- The road team has won all four meetings between these teams this year.
- The four games between the Mets and Giants have gone 3-1 to the under in 2025.
Giants vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 6 – Giants 4
Win Probability: Mets 60%, Giants 40%
Final Thoughts
We should see the offenses flourish in this National League matchup from Citi Field. The Mets have a ton of firepower at the top of their lineup and that should cause problems for a pitcher making his first MLB start. I expect the Mets to do some scoring early and for the Giants to get some late runs on the board to help push us over the total of eight runs.
