San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Francisco Giants at Target Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Twins come into this matchup with a record of 20-20, reflecting an average season thus far. Meanwhile, the Giants, sitting at 24-16, are having a great year despite losing to the Twins in their last game.

Pablo Lopez is projected to take the mound for the Twins. He has had a solid season, boasting a 3-2 record with an impressive ERA of 2.18, ranking him as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 2.71 SIERA indicates potential for regression. Lopez is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but with a concerning projection of 5.6 hits allowed and 1.3 walks.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Landen Roupp, who has a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.89. Roupp has also faced his share of challenges but is projected to improve, as his 3.49 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky. He is expected to pitch about 5.1 innings, allowing a similar average of 2.6 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 4.9 is below average.

Offensively, the Twins rank 20th in MLB, while the Giants hold a slightly better 17th position. The Twins' struggles at the plate, combined with their mediocre pitching performance, make them a risky bet despite being favorites with a moneyline of -145. The Giants, though underdogs at +120, have the potential to exploit the Twins' weaknesses, particularly with their top hitters showing recent success. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expected scoring output for both teams.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Landen Roupp has a mean projection of 15.2 outs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ranking 3rd-least steep in Major League Baseball this year, San Francisco Giants hitters collectively have posted a 10.3° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (an advanced standard to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With a 0.58 discrepancy between Pablo Lopez's 10.09 K/9 and his 9.51 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 42% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.46, Minnesota Twins 4.46

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

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