San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Odds – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to take on the San Francisco Giants on August 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Brewers sit at 75-56, boasting a solid season and currently holding a competitive edge in the playoff race. On the other hand, the Giants are hovering around .500 with a record of 67-66, making this matchup critical for both clubs, especially as they aim for Wild Card positioning.

These teams met yesterday; the Giants notched a much-needed victory that they will look to replicate in this contest. Freddy Peralta, projected to start, ranks as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, showcasing his capability to dominate on the mound. With an ERA of 3.86 and an average of 7.4 strikeouts per game, he’s expected to be a significant force against the Giants’ lineup, which has struggled this season—ranking 15th in offense.

Kyle Harrison will take the mound for San Francisco, but the projections indicate a challenging outing for the left-handed pitcher, who holds a 4.00 ERA. His 4.78 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year, signaling potential struggles ahead. With his average projection of 4.7 innings pitched and a concerning allowance of 2.9 earned runs, the Giants' offense will need to step up if they hope to compete.

The projections favor the Brewers, who are expected to score approximately 4.68 runs, compared to just 3.72 for the Giants. Additionally, the Brewers' offense ranks 10th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average of .260, contrasting sharply with the Giants’ 15th rank and their struggles with power, as reflected by their 23rd ranking in home runs. This contest presents a prime opportunity for the Brewers to further assert their dominance in this series.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Over his last 3 games started, Kyle Harrison has suffered a sizeable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2206 rpm over the whole season to 2141 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Heliot Ramos has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 94.3-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starter, Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.8 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jackson Chourio has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 20.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 14.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 120 games (+10.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Grant McCray has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+18.40 Units / 184% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.66 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.