San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Preview – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of crucial late-season action. The Brewers currently hold a strong 75-55 record, while the Giants sit at a more average 66-66. This matchup marks the first game in the series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum as they approach the final stretch of the season.

In their last game, the Brewers took a loss to the Oakland A's, while the Giants lost to the Seattle Mariners. Their pitching matchup features Tobias Myers, who has had a decent season with a 2.87 ERA, but his 4.07 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat lucky thus far. Myers is projected to pitch 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters.

On the other side, the Giants will send out Logan Webb, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB, with a solid 3.13 ERA. Webb has been a reliable presence, averaging 6.1 innings per start and projected to allow just 2.3 earned runs today. The Giants’ offense has struggled this year, ranking 14th overall, and they’ll need to capitalize on any opportunities to support Webb’s efforts on the mound.

Interestingly, the advanced projections suggest that the Giants are slightly favored in this matchup, with a projected win probability of 56%. However, the Brewers' current moneyline is set at -110, reflecting a close contest. Given that the Brewers have shown the ability to score runs effectively, they may very well pull off a win against a Giants team that has had its ups and downs this season. With both teams eager to secure a victory, fans can expect an exciting game at American Family Field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tobias Myers must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 59.1% of the time, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Sal Frelick's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 83.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 78-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 107 games (+10.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 38% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.42 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.