San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/17/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 145, Marlins 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Giants -110, Marlins -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 50%
• Miami Marlins - 50%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 54.77%
• Miami Marlins - 45.23%

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup on April 17, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are having a tough season, with the Marlins holding a 4-14 record and the Giants sitting at 7-11. The Marlins will send left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers to the mound, while the Giants will counter with right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn.

Trevor Rogers has started three games this year, earning a win-loss record of 0-2. His ERA stands at 4.80, which is below average, but his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Keaton Winn, on the other hand, has started three games as well, with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 5.06. His 4.20 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky, but there is potential for improvement.

Rogers is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. However, he is expected to struggle with allowing hits and walks. Winn, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters. He also struggles with hits and walks.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB this season, with a low ranking in home runs and stolen bases. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league. The Giants offense, while not outstanding, ranks as an average team in MLB.

Looking at the overall matchup, Trevor Rogers, a low-strikeout pitcher, may have an advantage against the Giants' high-strikeout offense. On the other hand, Keaton Winn's high-groundball pitching style may work in his favor against the Marlins' lack of power. Winn's high-walk rate could be mitigated by the Marlins' impatience at the plate.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The moneyline odds are currently set at -110 for both teams, suggesting a close game according to betting markets.

It will be interesting to see how these struggling teams match up in this series. Can Trevor Rogers outperform his numbers and lead the Marlins to victory? Or will Keaton Winn finally find some luck and deliver a strong performance for the Giants? Tune in on April 17th to find out.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 4th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Trevor Rogers is expected to record an average of 15 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Keaton Winn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 85 games (+25.27 Units / 25% ROI)

Giants vs Marlins Prediction: Giants 4.7 - Marlins 4.02

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