San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Pick – 5/31/2025

On May 31, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park in an intriguing matchup that holds significant implications. The Marlins, struggling with a 22-33 record, face off against the 32-25 Giants, who are enjoying a solid season. In their previous encounter, the Giants triumphed decisively, further highlighting the Marlins' struggles this year.

Miami is set to start Edward Cabrera, who has had a rocky season thus far, maintaining a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.73, which indicates a below-average performance. However, advanced stats suggest Cabrera could improve moving forward, as his 3.69 xFIP hints at some misfortune impacting his results. He projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. Yet, the projections also indicate he could allow as many as 4.4 hits and 2.2 walks, raising concerns for the Marlins.

On the other side, the Giants are poised to counter with Robbie Ray, who has been stellar this season, boasting an impressive 7-0 record and a 2.56 ERA. Although Ray's 3.73 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression, he remains a solid choice for the Giants. He is projected to strike out 6.8 batters and log 5.7 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Marlins rank a respectable 16th in MLB, while the Giants sit at 21st, putting them in a tough spot. With the Giants' elite bullpen ranked 1st and Miami's bullpen lagging at 26th, the matchup heavily favors San Francisco. Given these factors, oddsmakers have made the Marlins significant underdogs, but with Cabrera’s potential for improvement, surprises could be in store at LoanDepot Park.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's four-seam fastball utilization has decreased by 17.4% from last season to this one (27.4% to 10%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Kyle Stowers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Heriberto Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 73% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 74% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.86, Miami Marlins 3.89

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

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