San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Picks – 7/23/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium on July 23, 2024, in a National League West matchup. As the second game in the series, this contest carries significant weight, especially given the Dodgers' strong season and the Giants' struggles. Los Angeles boasts a 60-41 record, while San Francisco lags behind at 48-53. This disparity is reflected in the Dodgers' status as -140 favorites, with an implied win probability of 56%.

Starting for the Dodgers is right-hander Landon Knack, who has had a mixed season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.23, his xFIP of 4.22 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Knack's projections for this game are less than stellar, with an average of 4.1 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs allowed, 4.2 strikeouts, 3.9 hits, and 1.3 walks. On the flip side, the Giants will send Jordan Hicks to the mound. Hicks has been solid with a 3.79 ERA but has also benefited from some luck, as indicated by his 4.75 xERA. His projections include 4.9 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs, 4.1 strikeouts, 5.3 hits, and 2.0 walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers are a juggernaut, ranking 1st in MLB in overall talent, 5th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. This potent lineup could pose problems for Hicks, despite his ground-ball tendencies. The Giants, by contrast, rank 15th in overall offense, 15th in batting average, 25th in home runs, and dead last in stolen bases. This lack of power might play into Knack's hands, as he is a high-flyball pitcher.

The Dodgers' bullpen ranks 9th, while the Giants' bullpen is an impressive 2nd. However, the Dodgers' offensive firepower, particularly with Gavin Lux batting .417 and boasting a 1.500 OPS over the last week, could be the difference-maker. LaMonte Wade Jr. has been the Giants' standout hitter recently, with a .308 average over the last seven days, but he may struggle to keep up with the Dodgers' prolific lineup.

In terms of projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 55% win probability, closely aligning with the betting odds. With a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, the Dodgers are well-positioned to come out on top in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Hicks has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme groundball batters like Mike Yastrzemski are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Landon Knack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Over his previous 3 games started, Landon Knack has produced a big increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2426 rpm over the whole season to 2507 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Over the last two weeks, Chris Taylor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games (+6.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jordan Hicks has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 36% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.89 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.12

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