San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/15/2025

On June 15, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal National League West matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 42-29 and the Giants at 41-30. In their previous game, the Dodgers emerged victorious, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

The matchup features Dodgers' right-hander Dustin May, who is projected to start, facing off against the Giants' lefty Kyle Harrison. May has had an inconsistent season with a 3-4 record and a 4.46 ERA, but advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as his 3.92 xFIP indicates better days ahead. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. However, he does struggle with hits and walks, allowing 5.0 hits and 1.4 walks per game.

On the other side, Kyle Harrison, with a 1-1 record and a 4.56 ERA, has had limited opportunities, starting just 4 games. His projections are not favorable, as he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing a troubling 3.2 earned runs and 1.8 walks.

The Dodgers' offense, bolstered by their 1st place ranking in team batting average, will look to exploit Harrison's weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Giants' offense has struggled this season, ranking 22nd overall, which may hinder their chances against a strong Dodgers bullpen that ranks 4th in MLB. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Dodgers as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -175, the odds favor the home team to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his huge platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.2, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.73

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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