San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As we approach the September 22, 2024, matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium, both teams find themselves in different positions this season. The Royals, with an 82-73 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Giants, at 76-79, are hovering around mediocrity. This interleague clash marks the third game in their series, with both teams aiming to finish strong.

On the mound, Kansas City is set to start Seth Lugo, who has been a solid performer this year. Lugo boasts a 16-8 record with a commendable 3.05 ERA. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he's been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Meanwhile, the Giants counter with Blake Snell, an elite left-hander ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Snell's 3.31 ERA, coupled with a stellar 2.54 FIP, suggests he's been unlucky and could perform even better.

Offensively, the Royals have shown flashes of competence, ranking 7th in team batting average and 10th in stolen bases. The Giants, however, have struggled, ranking 21st in both overall offense and team batting average. The Royals' MJ Melendez has been hot lately, posting a .444 average and 1.278 OPS over the last week, while the Giants' Michael Conforto has been a standout with a .333 average and two home runs in the same span.

Despite both teams having a moneyline of -110, suggesting an even matchup, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Giants a slight edge with a 53% projected win probability. This projection favors San Francisco, thanks in part to Snell's potential to capitalize on his unlucky season and the Giants' superior bullpen, ranked 5th compared to the Royals' 11th. As both teams vie for a win, this game promises to be a tight and intriguing contest.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all starting pitchers, Blake Snell's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph grades out in the 84th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky this year, notching a .364 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .294 — a .070 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to average, Seth Lugo has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+7.34 Units / 9% ROI)
• Grant McCray has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.16 vs Kansas City Royals 3.71

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