San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Odds – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the San Francisco Giants on September 21, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium for the second game in their interleague series. The Royals, sitting at an 82-72 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Giants, at 75-79, are experiencing a more middling campaign. San Francisco is aiming to solidify their upper hand in the series after taking the first game yesterday.

Brady Singer will take the mound for the Royals, bringing his 3.53 ERA into the matchup. Despite a 9-11 win/loss record, Singer's performance has been bolstered by being ranked the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is above average. However, his xERA of 4.47 indicates some luck has been on his side this season, which could lead to potential regression. Singer's projection to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 5.7 batters today paints a picture of reliability, although his tendency to allow hits and walks remains a concern.

On the other side, the Giants will rely on Landen Roupp, who has transitioned between starting and bullpen duties this season. Roupp holds a commendable 3.02 ERA, though his xFIP of 4.03 suggests he's benefited from some favorable outcomes. Roupp is projected to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, with a less impressive strikeout rate of 3.8.

Offensively, the Royals rank 14th overall, showcasing strengths in batting average (6th) and stolen bases (10th), while the Giants' offense struggles at 21st overall. Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. has been in stellar form, boasting a .400 batting average and 1.319 OPS over the last week. In contrast, Heliot Ramos has been a bright spot for San Francisco, with a .333 average and 1.058 OPS.

The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their stronger season and home-field advantage. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, giving Kansas City a 57% projected win probability. With a projected total of 8.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup as the Royals look to continue their push towards a successful season finish.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Landen Roupp to throw 80 pitches in today's game (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 76.8-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has relied on his sinker 9.7% less often this season (41.4%) than he did last year (51.1%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.245) implies that Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year with his .204 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games at home (+9.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.69 Units / 11% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 100% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.69 vs Kansas City Royals 4.83

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