San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mason Black - Giants
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals, who are enjoying an above-average season with an 82-71 record, will host the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium on September 20, 2024. The Royals are positioned as favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. Their playoff hopes are still alive as they continue to fight for a position in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Giants, with a 74-79 record, are having a below-average season and are underdogs in this matchup.

Kansas City's Michael Wacha takes the mound as the Royals aim to bounce back from a 4-2 defeat against the Tigers. Wacha has been solid overall, boasting a 13-7 win-loss record with an impressive 3.29 ERA. Though his xFIP of 4.13 suggests some regression might be on the horizon, he remains a key asset for the Royals. Wacha is ranked as the 68th-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB, indicating his solid performance this season.

On the other side, the Giants are sending Mason Black to pitch. Black's season has been rough, recording an ERA of 7.07 and a 0-4 record. However, his xFIP of 5.17 implies that he's been somewhat unlucky and might see improved results. San Francisco's offense, ranked 21st, faces a challenge against a Royals team that excels in hitting with the 7th-best batting average in MLB. Kyle Isbel has been particularly effective lately, sporting a .375 batting average over the last week.

Despite the disparity in records, there's potential value in betting on the Giants, as the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, notes their win probability is 4% higher than the current betting market suggests. Both teams enter this interleague clash looking to capitalize on any edges they can find, particularly as the Royals aim to maintain their playoff push.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Mason Black's high utilization rate of his fastball (60.9% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck given the .071 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Today, Heliot Ramos is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.8% rate (93rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has jumped 1.6 mph this year (93 mph) over where it was last season (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Adam Frazier has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 3.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 85 of their last 152 games (+8.98 Units / 4% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 away games (+7.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Grant McCray has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.90 Units / 119% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.38 vs Kansas City Royals 5

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