San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 5/26/2025

The Detroit Tigers host the San Francisco Giants on May 26, 2025, in what marks the first game of an interleague series. While the Tigers have been enjoying a strong season with a record of 34-20, ranking 2nd in Power Rankings for their stellar bullpen, the Giants have also been competitive at 31-22, though their overall team performance falls short in comparison. This matchup is critical for both squads as they continue to jockey for position in a tightly contested league.

On the mound, the Tigers are set to start Keider Montero, who has had a challenging season thus far, posting a 5.28 ERA and ranking as the 293rd best pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Although he has 6 starts under his belt with a 1-1 record, Montero is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings today, allowing about 2.7 earned runs on average. Conversely, Hayden Birdsong will pitch for the Giants, boasting an exceptional ERA of 1.91. However, projections suggest that he may have been benefitting from some luck this season.

Given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, particularly the Tigers' offensive prowess (ranking 7th in MLB) against the Giants' lower-tier performance, this game looks to favor Detroit. With both teams at even moneylines of -110, the Tigers could surprise and exceed what the betting markets anticipate.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong's fastball spin rate has jumped 102 rpm this season (2393 rpm) over where it was last season (2291 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last year has decreased to 82.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• Javier Baez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 74% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.44, Detroit Tigers 4.05

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.