San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/28/2025

On May 28, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams come into this game with solid records, as the Tigers sit at 36-20 and the Giants at 31-24. Detroit's strong season has been bolstered by a potent offense, currently ranked 8th in MLB, while San Francisco's lineup has struggled, ranking 21st. The magnitude of this game is heightened as it's the third in this series, and both teams are looking to gain an edge.

In their last contest, the Tigers showcased their pitching depth by giving up just one run, setting the stage for Jackson Jobe, who is projected to start. Jobe, however, has had mixed results this season, with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 4.06. His 4.98 xFIP indicates he might be due for some regression. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and giving up a concerning 1.9 walks.

On the other side, Landen Roupp will take the mound for the Giants. With a record of 3-3 and a solid ERA of 3.63, Roupp has shown he can limit damage, projecting to give up just 2.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings. However, like Jobe, he faces challenges, with projections indicating he will allow 4.7 hits and 2.1 walks.

The current betting lines suggest a close matchup, with both teams set at -110 on the moneyline and an average game total of 8.0 runs. Given the Tigers' offensive prowess against a struggling Giants lineup, Detroit may have the upper hand in this clash.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Landen Roupp is expected to rack up an average of 15.4 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 87.4-mph figure last season has fallen off to 82.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected offense, Jackson Jobe figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Javier Baez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Landen Roupp.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.88 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 69% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.07, Detroit Tigers 3.98

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers

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