San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 6/28/2025

The San Francisco Giants travel to Chicago to face off against the Chicago White Sox in the second game of their interleague series on June 28, 2025. The Giants come into this matchup riding high after securing a 3-1 victory over the White Sox yesterday. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to struggle, sitting at 26-56 this season, well out of contention and enduring a rough patch.

Adrian Houser is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. Despite his excellent ERA of 2.27, advanced metrics suggest he may be overachieving, as his xFIP stands at 4.15, indicating he could be in for a rough outing. Houser's average projections for the day include 5.2 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and a concerning 5.3 hits allowed. His strikeout rate of 3.7 per game is particularly alarming, suggesting he may struggle against the Giants’ lineup.

On the other side, Robbie Ray is set to pitch for San Francisco. With a solid 2.83 ERA and a 3.75 xFIP, Ray is having a strong season, boasting an 8-2 record over 16 starts. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, but he is expected to strike out 6.4 batters, showcasing his ability to dominate hitters.

While both offenses have not performed exceptionally this season, the Giants rank slightly better, sitting at 24th in MLB. The White Sox, however, are struggling mightily, ranked 30th in batting average and home runs. With the Giants' solid bullpen ranked 5th in MLB compared to the White Sox's average 19th rank, San Francisco looks to capitalize on their opportunities and continue their winning ways. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potential for a modest scoring affair.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Adrian Houser.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Adrian Houser must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 40.9% of the time, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Andrew Benintendi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox have hit 29.3% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, putting them as the #25 squad in MLB by this standard.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+7.80 Units / 156% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.91, Chicago White Sox 4.21

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Adrian Houser - White Sox

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