San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Odds – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles host the San Francisco Giants on September 17, 2024, in what will be the first game of their interleague series. The Orioles are enjoying a strong season with an 84-66 record, good for a solid standing in the American League, while the Giants sit at 72-78, struggling with a subpar performance.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start Albert Suarez, who holds an 8-5 record and an impressive 3.39 ERA this year. However, advanced stats rank him as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Suarez is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, which could present opportunities for the Giants' lineup.

Blake Snell takes the hill for San Francisco, boasting a much stronger reputation as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite a 3-3 record and a 3.52 ERA, Snell’s underlying metrics suggest he has been unlucky, and he could perform better moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing around 2.3 earned runs. Snell’s ability to strike out 6.8 batters on average will be a key factor against an Orioles offense that ranks 5th overall in MLB.

With the Orioles' offense being particularly potent, ranking 2nd in home runs, they are likely to capitalize on any mistakes made by Suarez. Meanwhile, the Giants' offense struggles significantly, ranking 21st in the league, and will need to find ways to exploit Suarez’s vulnerabilities to earn a victory. The advanced projections favor the Orioles, making this matchup one to watch for sports bettors looking for value.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Over his previous 3 outings, Blake Snell has suffered a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2437 rpm over the whole season to 2383 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.4) suggests that LaMonte Wade Jr. has suffered from bad luck this year with his 10.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.9% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 away games (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+8.95 Units / 46% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.5 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.64

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