San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/3/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants are set to face off on July 3, 2024, at Truist Park in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. The Braves are having a strong season with a 46-37 record, while the Giants are hovering around average at 42-44. This game marks the second in a series between these two teams.

The Braves have the edge on the mound with Chris Sale, the #7 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Sale has been stellar this season, boasting a 10-3 record and a 2.79 ERA. The projections are optimistic about his performance today, forecasting 5.8 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs allowed, and 8.0 strikeouts. While his walks and hits projections are less favorable, his overall dominance should shine through against the Giants.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Jordan Hicks, who is having a respectable season with a 4-4 record and a 3.36 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, as evidenced by his 4.05 xFIP. Hicks is projected to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.9 batters. Given these metrics, the Braves' hitters may find success against him.

Offensively, both teams present average lineups. The Braves rank 14th in MLB in overall offense and rely on a balanced attack, though they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 27th. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 13th offensively but have been particularly poor in the stolen bases category, sitting at 30th.

The Braves’ bullpen is ranked 7th, while the Giants’ bullpen is even better at 2nd, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that if the game is tight late, the Giants might have a slight edge.

Betting odds favor the Braves heavily with a moneyline of -205, translating to a 65% implied win probability. Given Chris Sale’s elite status and the Braves’ solid season, they are rightly projected to score 4.67 runs, while the Giants are expected to score just 3.33.

With both teams looking to make a statement, all eyes will be on how Chris Sale performs against the Giants’ lineup. If he can maintain his elite form, the Braves should position themselves well for another victory.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Hicks has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 56% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Over the last 7 days, Matt Chapman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.1% up to 17.6%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale was on point in his last outing and posted 11 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.9-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 68 games (+25.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.1 vs Atlanta Braves 4.84

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