Two National League Wild Card hopefuls will meet in an important game late in the 2025 MLB season as the San Francisco Giants visit the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Both teams have similar records and are jockeying for position in the postseason picture. Arizona enters the finale of this three-game set having won the first two, including a walk-off win in game two. San Francisco is trying to stay alive in the wild-card race with little margin for error. Here, you can find my analysis for this game, including my Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction.
Our Giants vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 3:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Justin Verlander (SF)
- Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: MLB Network, ARID, NBCS-BA
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Brandon Pfaadt has had an up-and-down season. He has 13 wins but a high ERA (5.31) that suggests he gives up too many runs and often relies on the bullpen to get through games. Pfaadt has struggled to contain damage when facing good opposing lineups and will need to put a stop to that in this game.
San Francisco’s Justin Verlander is 3-10 this year, but his ERA of 3.94 is respectable. Recent starts have shown signs of life from the veteran pitcher. Verlander has been better lately, giving up few runs in several outings and leaning on a stronger bullpen when he departs. If you ignore the records, Verlander is pitching better than Pfaadt right now.
Recent team streaks
- Arizona has won four consecutive games going into this series finale.
- San Francisco has lost four games in a row and could really use a win to help their Wild Card chances.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Justin Verlander | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Rafael Devers | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Diamondbacks hold a 7-5 lead in their season series against the Giants.
- This is the last regular-season game scheduled between these teams in 2025.
- Arizona has won the last three meetings between these teams.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
Score Projection: Diamondbacks 4 – Giants 5
Win Probability: Diamondbacks 43%, Giants 57%
Final Thoughts
It is easy to look at the recent form of both teams and to assume that Arizona has the upper hand because of that. But I think the Giants have the advantage going into this contest. Verlander is pitching better than Pfaadt right now, despite what their win-loss records say. The Giants should be able to get the job done on the road to end their current losing streak and get them moving in the right direction again in the NL Wild Card race.
