San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 6/30/2025

On June 30, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field for the first game of a crucial series in the National League West. The Diamondbacks enter with a record of 41-42, while the Giants sit at 45-39, showcasing a stark contrast in their current seasons. Arizona's offense has been impressive, ranking as the 2nd best in MLB, which could play a significant role against a Giants team that struggles offensively, ranking 24th overall.

The Diamondbacks will send Ryne Nelson to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 4-2 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 3.71. However, he faces a tough challenge against Logan Webb, the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, who boasts an excellent ERA of 2.52. Despite Webb's elite status, he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as his xERA of 3.02 indicates he might not maintain this level of performance.

The matchup is intriguing, as the Diamondbacks' powerful offense has hit 120 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB. However, they will be up against Webb's effective groundball rate of 55%. The projections suggest that Nelson's average outing could see him allow 2.7 earned runs, while Webb is expected to give up 2.4 runs, making this a potentially close contest.

With the Diamondbacks being underdogs with a moneyline of +130, their implied team total of 3.65 runs reflects a challenging matchup. However, given the strength of their offense and the potential for Webb's luck to run out, Arizona could surprise in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's 2128-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 14th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Ketel Marte has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 15.9% seasonal rate to 21.1% over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 69 games (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Casey Schmitt has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.73, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

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