San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick – 9/23/2024

• Date: September 23, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants gear up for a National League West clash at Chase Field on September 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in different phases of their season narratives. The D-Backs are having a strong season with an 87-69 record, eyeing playoff contention, while the Giants, at 77-79, linger in mediocrity.

Arizona's offense has been explosive all season, ranking 1st in MLB Power Rankings and 2nd in team batting average. Their power is evident, sitting 4th in home runs. Ketel Marte has been red-hot over the past week, posting a .348 batting average and a staggering 1.413 OPS. With Eduardo Rodriguez taking the mound, the D-Backs have a slight edge against a Giants team that struggles offensively, ranked 18th overall.

Eduardo Rodriguez is poised for a bounce-back performance. Despite a 5.09 ERA suggesting a tough season, his xFIP of 4.29 indicates potential improvement. He is projected to strike out 6.2 batters on average, a promising stat for the D-Backs as they look to capitalize on his strengths.

On the flip side, the Giants will rely on Hayden Birdsong, who has been one of the lower-ranked pitchers this year. His high flyball and walk rates could spell trouble against a powerful and patient D-Backs lineup. Arizona's ability to draw walks and hit home runs could exploit Birdsong's weaknesses, putting pressure on San Francisco's 5th-ranked bullpen to step up.

The D-Backs are the favored team, with a moneyline of -165 and a projected win probability of 63%, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Their offense is primed to take advantage of Birdsong's vulnerabilities, and with a solid bullpen to back up Rodriguez, Arizona looks to continue their push toward the postseason.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 87.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 74.2-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Herrera is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of San Francisco (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 117 games (+29.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 36 games (+36.10 Units / 100% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.32 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.98

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