San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals Prediction For 8/7/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 7, 2024, the focus is on playoff positioning despite both teams sitting in the middle of the standings. The Nationals currently hold a record of 52-62, while the Giants are slightly better at 57-58. This game is crucial in determining how these teams will finish the season, as they look to build momentum over the final weeks.

In their last matchup, the Nationals beat up on the Giants, scoring 11 runs in a win in front of their home crowd. Washington's Jake Irvin is projected to take the mound, and while he hasn't been particularly impressive—ranking as the 127th best starting pitcher in MLB—his average projections indicate he could manage the game. Irvin is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, but he struggles to limit hits and walks, which could pose trouble against San Francisco's lineup.

On the other side, Blake Snell will start for the Giants; he has been dominant, sitting as the 18th best pitcher in baseball according to advanced stats. Snell's elite projections show he can deliver 5.7 innings with just 2.1 earned runs allowed and a solid strikeout rate. This pitching matchup heavily favors the Giants, especially with the Nationals’ offense ranking a dismal 29th in home runs this season.

The Nationals have a sliver of hope with James Wood heating up, providing a bat that's been on fire lately. Over the last week, he's recorded 9 hits and has a .429 batting average. As the Nationals face a Giants lineup that has been average overall this season, they will need Wood to stay hot to prevail.

The Game Total is set at a reasonable 8.0 runs, and the Nationals enter this game as underdogs with a moneyline of +135. While the projections suggest a lower-scoring affair, the recent performances of both pitchers and the offensive capabilities of this matchup may provide an unpredictable twist.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has utilized his curveball 6.3% more often this season (26.1%) than he did last year (19.8%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 99.2-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been one of the luckiest mound aces in MLB on balls in play this year with a .263 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Yepez has been very fortunate given the .066 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 113 games (+9.93 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+7.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.73 vs Washington Nationals 3.35

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