San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 8/5/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 5, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Nationals sit at 51-61, struggling in a season that has not gone as planned, while the Giants are hovering around .500 with a 56-57 record. The Giants are in a better position, but both teams are looking to gain momentum in this first game of the series.

In their last outing, the Nationals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers in surprising fashion. Meanwhile, the Giants have been inconsistent, and while they are not in playoff contention, they are eager to improve their standing. This matchup features two pitchers with contrasting fortunes: Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and Logan Webb for the Giants. Corbin, ranked 305th among MLB starters, has struggled significantly this year with a 5.88 ERA and a troubling 2-11 record. In contrast, Logan Webb has been a standout performer, sitting at 11th in the league with a solid 3.49 ERA and an 8-8 record.

The Nationals’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 25th overall in MLB, particularly struggling with power as they sit 29th in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could be a factor against Webb, who allows a high number of hits but induces ground balls at a 58% rate.

The projections suggest that Corbin may allow an average of 3.1 earned runs, while Webb is expected to give up only 2.3. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, the Giants are favored with a moneyline of -190 and an implied team total of 5.17 runs, while the Nationals are underdogs at +165 with an average implied team total of 3.83 runs. This matchup presents a classic case of a struggling offense against an elite pitcher, setting the stage for an intriguing battle at Nationals Park.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Logan Webb (56.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 4 FB hitters in the opposition's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano, Mike Yastrzemski, Jerar Encarnacion).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.2% compared to 41.5% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+6.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+17.90 Units / 40% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.28 vs Washington Nationals 3.41

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