San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 6/7/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On June 7, 2024, the Texas Rangers will host the San Francisco Giants at Globe Life Field for an interleague matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Rangers holding a 30-32 record and the Giants at 30-33. The Rangers are the home team, while the Giants will be playing as the away team.

The starting pitchers for this game are projected to be Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers and Logan Webb for the Giants. Lorenzen is a right-handed pitcher who has started nine games this year, with a win-loss record of 3-3 and an excellent ERA of 2.96. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, Webb is a right-handed pitcher who has started 13 games this year, with a win-loss record of 4-5 and an excellent ERA of 2.95. Similar to Lorenzen, Webb's xERA suggests potential regression in his performance.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Webb is ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Lorenzen is ranked at 160 out of approximately 350 pitchers. This indicates that Webb is an elite pitcher, while Lorenzen is considered mediocre.

The Rangers offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking second in the league, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking 25th. On the other hand, the Giants offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB. They struggle in team batting average, ranking 21st, and stolen bases, ranking 29th.

Looking at the projections, Webb is expected to pitch an average of 6.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 5.2 batters but allow 6.2 hits and 1.3 walks on average. Lorenzen, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 5.0 batters but allow 4.7 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

In terms of the betting odds, the Rangers have a slight edge with a moneyline of -105, implying a 49% win probability. The Giants have a moneyline of -115, giving them a 51% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for total runs scored.

While the Giants have the edge in starting pitching and bullpen rankings, the Rangers' powerful offense, particularly in home runs, could pose a challenge for Webb, who is a high-groundball pitcher. However, Webb's control may neutralize one of the Rangers' strengths as they are a high-walk offense.

This game presents an intriguing matchup between two teams with below-average seasons. The Rangers will rely on their strong offense, while the Giants will look to their elite starting pitcher to secure a victory. With the odds indicating a close game, fans can expect an exciting battle on the field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's 2017.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 10th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jorge Soler is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tallying 18.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Michael Lorenzen ranks in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This year, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 25.23 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Texas's 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in the game: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 25 games (+19.25 Units / 77% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.3 vs Texas Rangers 3.63

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