San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 4/13/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 160, Rays 1.5 -185
• Money Line: Giants -110, Rays -110
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 50%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 61.52%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 38.48%

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 13, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the San Francisco Giants at Tropicana Field in an Interleague matchup. The Rays have been having a good season so far with a record of 8-6, while the Giants have struggled with a record of 5-9.

The Rays will have Ryan Pepiot on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has started two games this season. Pepiot has a win-loss record of 1-1 with an ERA of 4.63. However, his 3.19 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pepiot is ranked as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average.

Contrasting Pepiot's performance, the Giants will start Logan Webb, a right-handed pitcher who has started three games this year. Webb has a win-loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 4.86. Similar to Pepiot, his 3.40 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve. Webb is ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings, highlighting his elite status.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank 17th in MLB overall, with a strong showing in team batting average (9th), home runs (4th), and stolen bases (2nd). On the other hand, the Giants have struggled, ranking 23rd overall, with poor rankings in team batting average (21st) and stolen bases (29th). However, their bullpen is considered the best in MLB according to our Power Rankings.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball hitters, Logan Webb and his 55.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Thairo Estrada has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 87.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Ryan Pepiot in the 87th percentile among all SPs in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Against the weak defense of San Francisco's 3rd-worst infield of the day), Yandy Diaz has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Giants vs Rays Prediction: Giants 4.14 - Rays 3.04

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