San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 6/22/2024

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants are set to clash on June 22, 2024, at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. Both teams are navigating through challenging seasons, with the Cardinals having a 37-37 record and the Giants sitting at 36-40. This National League matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals and Jordan Hicks for the Giants.

Miles Mikolas, with a 5-6 record and a 4.59 ERA, is having an average season. However, his 3.88 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see an improvement in his stats. Mikolas is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average. While his strikeout numbers are below-average, his control has been excellent, as evidenced by a low 4.4% walk rate. This could be crucial against the Giants, who rank 6th in walks drawn this season.

Jordan Hicks, the Giants' starter, has been a bright spot with a 4-3 record and an impressive 2.82 ERA. However, his 3.85 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate and could regress. Hicks is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs. Despite his solid ERA, Hicks struggles with below-average strikeout numbers and has a high walks projection.

Offensively, the Giants hold a slight edge, ranking 15th in overall offense and 12th in team batting average, compared to the Cardinals who rank 20th and 18th, respectively. Brendan Donovan has been on fire for the Cardinals, hitting .360 with two home runs and seven RBIs over the last week. For the Giants, Austin Slater has been stellar, boasting a .400 average and a 1.325 OPS over his last five games.

Both teams' bullpens are strong, with the Giants ranked 1st and the Cardinals 9th according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. This matchup projects to be closely contested, as reflected in the betting lines with both teams set at -110, implying a 50% win probability. The projected game total stands at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring game.

Given the advanced statistics and projections, the Cardinals could have a slight edge, especially with Mikolas potentially pitching better than his current ERA suggests. This is a game where both teams' strengths and weaknesses will be put to the test.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Due to his large platoon split, Jordan Hicks will be at a disadvantage being matched up with 6 bats in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Chapman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his previous outing, Miles Mikolas was on point and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball batters like Matt Carpenter generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 101% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.44 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.05

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