San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight spot, each hovering around .500 this season. The Mariners sit at 65-65, while the Giants hold a slight edge at 66-65. Notably, the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 28th in MLB, which could play a significant role in their performance against the Giants.

Bryan Woo is expected to take the mound for the Mariners, coming off a solid season with a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.12 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.86 suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Despite this, Woo’s low walk rate of 2.9 BB% indicates he has strong control, which is essential against a Giants lineup that draws walks at the 6th highest rate in MLB. Coupled with Woo's projected ability to allow only 1.6 earned runs and to strike out 6.1 batters, he holds a statistical advantage.

Conversely, Robbie Ray takes the hill for the Giants with a 4.88 ERA, a number that belies his ability as he has faced some misfortune this season. Ray's high strikeout rate of 33.6% could be beneficial against a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts.

The projections show the Mariners as heavy favorites, suggesting they may score around 3.84 runs, while the Giants are projected for just 3.14 runs. Given this context, betting on the Mariners could prove valuable as they seek to take command in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .402 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck given the .100 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .302.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 away games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Grant McCray has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games (+8.00 Units / 114% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.26 vs Seattle Mariners 3.95

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