San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On August 23, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the San Francisco Giants at T-Mobile Park for the first game of an interleague series. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Mariners holding a record of 64-64 and the Giants at 65-64. The Mariners are currently ranked 28th in offensive performance this season and 30th in batting average, which is far from encouraging as they face a Giants team whose offense ranks 14th overall.

Luis Castillo, the Mariners' projected starter, has had a solid year with a 3.51 ERA and a Power Ranking of 44th among MLB starters. His ability to strike out 7.4 batters per game could be crucial against a high-strikeout Mariners lineup, which has the highest strikeout rate in the league. Moreover, Castillo's projection to allow only 1.9 earned runs today stands out, especially given that the Mariners' offense has been underwhelming.

On the other side, the Giants will send Hayden Birdsong to the mound. While Birdsong's 5.01 ERA this season paints a picture of struggle, his xFIP of 4.14 suggests he may be due for better outcomes. His performance will be tested against a Mariners team that has struggled mightily at the plate this season.

Interestingly, both the Mariners and Giants are coming off lackluster performances in their previous games, with neither team finding the offensive spark they need. The Mariners are slight favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying an average team total of 4.11 runs, while the Giants' implied total sits at a low 3.39 runs. With the Giants' bullpen ranking 1st in MLB, they may have the edge in late-game situations. Expect a low-scoring affair as both teams look to break the cycle of mediocrity.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (59.1% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) provides evidence that Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side this year with his .312 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate has dropped 130 rpm this year (2157 rpm) below where it was last year (2287 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games at home (+16.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+7.80 Units / 15% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.28 vs Seattle Mariners 3.96

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