San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mason Black - Giants
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the San Francisco Giants on September 6, 2024, in a crucial matchup within the National League West. The Padres currently sit at 80-62, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants are struggling with a 69-72 record. Despite their average performance, the Giants recently secured a narrow 3-2 victory against the D-Backs, showcasing some resilience. In contrast, the Padres are looking to bounce back from a tough 4-3 loss to the Tigers in their last outing.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Michael King, who ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 3.17 ERA this season. Although King has shown flashes of brilliance, his 3.67 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate in his results. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs, while striking out 7.2 batters—a strong performance against a Giants offense that ranks 21st in the league.

Mason Black will take the ball for the Giants, but he has struggled this season, posting a dismal 7.45 ERA in just 5 starts. Despite a decent outing in his last start, where he allowed only 2 earned runs over 5 innings, he remains one of the least effective pitchers in the league. The projections indicate that he may continue to face challenges against a potent Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for team batting average and 7th in overall offensive production.

With the Padres favored heavily with a moneyline of -210, they are projected to score an average of 4.82 runs, while the Giants are expected to struggle, projected for just 3.74 runs. The Padres' bullpen also ranks 2nd in MLB, adding another layer of confidence for San Diego as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to the average starter, Mason Black has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -15.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Conforto has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 10.57 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.21 — a 0.36 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Francisco (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 away games (+21.45 Units / 195% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.61 vs San Diego Padres 4.72

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