San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins Prediction For 4/16/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 125, Marlins 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Giants -140, Marlins 115
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 56%
• Miami Marlins - 44%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 57.17%
• Miami Marlins - 42.83%

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the Miami Marlins will take on the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park on April 16, 2024. The Marlins will be the home team for this game. Both teams have been struggling this season, with the Marlins holding a record of 3-14 and the Giants at 7-10.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has had a decent season so far. Weathers has started three games, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.57. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Weathers is ranked as the #279 best starting pitcher in MLB.

On the other hand, the Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, who has been performing well this season. Hicks has started three games, with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.00. Similar to Weathers, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hicks is ranked as the #33 best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Marlins offense has been struggling this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. However, they do have the third-best team batting average. The Giants offense, while not outstanding, ranks as an average offense in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%. The Marlins, with an implied win probability of 45%, are considered the underdogs in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Jordan Hicks (53.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the San Francisco Giants will tally 5.09 runs on average in this matchup: the 3rd-most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 8 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Ryan Weathers will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games at home (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 129 games (+25.97 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ryan Weathers has only hit the Earned Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (-2.10 Units / -32% ROI)

Giants vs Marlins Prediction: Giants 5.09 - Marlins 4.13

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