San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins Pick For 4/15/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • A.J. Puk - Marlins
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 140, Marlins 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Giants -120, Marlins 100
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 100

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 52%
• Miami Marlins - 48%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 53.87%
• Miami Marlins - 46.13%

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Miami Marlins are set to face off against the San Francisco Giants on April 15, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. As the home team, the Marlins will look to turn their season around, currently holding a disappointing record of 3-13. Meanwhile, the Giants are also struggling with a 6-10 record.

Taking the mound for the Marlins is left-handed pitcher A.J. Puk, who has had a tough start to the season. With an ERA of 5.91, Puk will need to improve his performance to give his team a chance to win. On the other side, the Giants will rely on left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison, who has shown promise despite his below-average ERA of 4.76.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. The Marlins fell short against the Braves with a score of 9-7, while the Giants suffered a 9-4 defeat against the Rays. The Marlins were considered underdogs in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Giants, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of -115 and an implied win probability of 51%, indicating a close game.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Marlins currently rank as the worst team in MLB, while the Giants sit at an average position. However, the Marlins have shown strength in team batting average, ranking third in the league. The Giants, on the other hand, struggle with stolen bases, ranking second to last.

When analyzing the pitching matchup, it's worth noting that A.J. Puk is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters. However, he has struggled with giving up hits and walks. Kyle Harrison, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. He has also struggled with hits and walks.

Considering the projections, the Marlins have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Giants have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs. However, THE BAT X projects the Giants to have a higher win probability of 53% compared to the Marlins' 47%.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Miami Marlins have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Wilmer Flores's speed has dropped off this year. His 24.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.68 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Avisail Garcia tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Giants vs Marlins Prediction: Giants 4.75 - Marlins 4.17

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