San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 7/24/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants square off on July 24, 2024, at Dodger Stadium in the third game of their series. This National League West matchup features two teams in contrasting positions this season. The Dodgers, boasting a 60-41 record, are having a great season and sit comfortably in the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Giants, at 48-53, have struggled and are having a below-average season.

The Dodgers are projected to start Tyler Glasnow, who has been nothing short of elite this year. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Glasnow ranks as the #6 best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. His peripheral stats suggest he has been unlucky this season, with a 2.50 xFIP significantly lower than his 3.47 ERA. Despite projecting to pitch only 4.6 innings today, Glasnow is expected to allow just 1.7 earned runs while striking out an impressive 6.6 batters.

On the other side, the Giants will send Robbie Ray to the mound. Ray has had a tough season, ranking poorly among MLB starting pitchers. THE BAT X projects him to allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.0 innings, with a particularly high number of hits (5.1) and walks (1.9). This is not ideal against a Dodgers offense that ranks as the 1st best in MLB, including 5th in batting average and 3rd in home runs.

The Dodgers' offensive prowess is further highlighted by the recent hot streak of Gavin Lux, who has been their best hitter over the last week, recording a .417 batting average with a 1.500 OPS. Conversely, the Giants' offense has been middling overall, ranking 15th in batting average and 25th in home runs, which doesn’t bode well against Glasnow's high groundball rate.

The Giants do have a bright spot in their bullpen, which ranks 2nd best in MLB, potentially giving them an edge late in the game. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen remains solid at 13th, and with the Dodgers being a big betting favorite with a current moneyline of -200, they are expected to prevail in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that groundball pitchers have a big advantage over groundball batters, Robbie Ray and his 38.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's game matching up with 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jorge Soler has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 97.7-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (55.2 compared to 43.5% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Andy Pages has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 24.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 47 games (+12.45 Units / 26% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.03 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.38

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.