San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 7/20/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants head to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies on July 20, 2024, in what will be the second game of their series. The Giants, who are having a below-average season with a 47-51 record, currently sit ahead of the Rockies, who are struggling at 35-63. This National League West matchup pits two teams with contrasting fortunes both on the mound and in the standings.

The Rockies are projected to start left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough season. His 6.00 ERA and a 1-3 Win/Loss record across eight starts indicate significant struggles. Freeland has been particularly unlucky, as evidenced by his 4.42 xFIP, suggesting he might perform better going forward. However, projections aren't kind to him today, forecasting him to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.5 hits over 5.1 innings.

On the other hand, the Giants will send right-hander Logan Webb to the mound. Webb has been stellar this season, boasting a 3.47 ERA and a 7-7 record over 20 starts. Ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB, Webb's 2.79 FIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and could pitch even better moving forward. Projections see him going 6.2 innings, striking out 5.7 batters and allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, both teams are fairly matched, with the Giants slightly ahead. The Giants rank 13th in overall offensive performance this season, while the Rockies are 18th. Despite the Rockies having a marginal edge in team home runs, they lag behind the Giants in most other offensive metrics.

The Rockies' bullpen has been a weak link, ranking 24th, while the Giants' bullpen is top-tier, holding the 1st spot in the Power Rankings. Given the disparity in relief pitching, the Giants hold a considerable edge in late-game situations.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Giants are favored in this matchup, projecting a win probability of 63% compared to the Rockies' 37%. Although the Rockies have a high implied team total of 4.65 runs, the Giants are expected to score even more, with a very high implied team total of 5.85 runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all SPs, Logan Webb's fastball spin rate of 2085 rpm grades out in the 12th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned lowest in MLB this year, San Francisco Giants bats as a group have put up a 9.6° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to study power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Freeland is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Elias Diaz has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 81.8-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 76 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 6.11 vs Colorado Rockies 4.42

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.