San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Pick For 7/19/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on July 19, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around. The Rockies, with a 34-63 record, are enduring a rough campaign, while the Giants, standing at 47-50, are flirting with mediocrity.

On the mound, the Rockies are slated to start Cal Quantrill, a right-hander currently ranked as the #168 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Quantrill's performance has been subpar, with a 4.13 ERA, but his 4.76 FIP suggests he has been fortunate and could regress. Quantrill is projected to pitch just 4.8 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters, indicating a potentially tough outing.

The Giants will counter with lefty Kyle Harrison, who has struggled even more. Harrison sports a 4.08 ERA, but his 4.95 xERA implies his luck might run out soon. Projected to pitch an average of 4.8 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, and striking out 4.9 batters, Harrison is also expected to face challenges. Nevertheless, he may find some success against a Rockies lineup that ranks third in strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams present average lineups. The Rockies rank 18th in overall offense, 14th in batting average, and 15th in home runs. On the other hand, the Giants rank 13th in overall offense and 14th in batting average but struggle with power, sitting at 24th in home runs. The Giants' lack of speed on the basepaths is notable, as they rank last in stolen bases.

Bullpen performance could be a distinguishing factor. The Rockies, with the 23rd-ranked bullpen, are at a significant disadvantage compared to the Giants, whose bullpen ranks 1st according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Despite the Rockies' home-field advantage and their slightly better recent offensive metrics, the odds favor the Giants with a moneyline of -165, reflecting a 60% implied win probability. The Rockies, at +140, are seen as underdogs with a 40% implied win probability.

Given the high game total of 10.0 runs, bettors should anticipate a potentially high-scoring affair, likely driven by the below-average projected performances of both starting pitchers. This National League West matchup might not feature elite talent, but it promises intrigue and opportunities for sharp bettors.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Harrison to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (6th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Heliot Ramos is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill's change-up percentage has risen by 14.1% from last year to this one (22.4% to 36.5%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last week's worth of games, Michael Toglia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 18.1% up to 40%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 76 games (+5.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+9.40 Units / 72% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 6.12 vs Colorado Rockies 5.42

Get daily MLB picks here.