San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 7/21/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants are set to face off on July 21, 2024, at Coors Field in the third game of their series. This National League West matchup features two teams struggling this season, with the Rockies holding a dismal 36-63 record and the Giants slightly better at 47-52.

On the mound, the Rockies will start left-hander Austin Gomber, who has had a rough season with a 2-6 record and a 4.61 ERA. Despite an average ERA, Gomber's advanced stats paint a bleaker picture. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gomber is ranked as the 166th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he's well below average. Projections suggest Gomber will pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 5.8 hits, and 1.4 walks while striking out 4.0 batters. These metrics do not inspire confidence for the Rockies.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with right-hander Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong has a 1-0 record with a 3.72 ERA in his four starts this season. However, his 5.00 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and might regress. Projections have Birdsong pitching 4.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 4.7 batters. While Birdsong's numbers are better than Gomber's, they still indicate a below-average performance.

Offensively, both teams are fairly evenly matched, with the Rockies ranked 15th and the Giants 13th in overall offensive production. The Rockies have an edge in power, ranking 15th in home runs compared to the Giants' 24th. However, the Giants' bullpen, ranked 2nd, is a significant strength compared to the Rockies' 25th-ranked bullpen.

The betting lines reflect the Giants' slight edge, with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Rockies, at +130, have an implied win probability of 42%. The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, suggesting a potential slugfest at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Given the Rockies' poor season and Gomber's struggles, the Giants appear to have the upper hand in this matchup, especially with their superior bullpen and slightly better offense. However, with both starting pitchers projected to struggle, this game could turn into a high-scoring affair where anything can happen.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

There has been a decrease in Wilmer Flores's average exit velocity this year, from 86.4 mph last year to 83.6 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2248 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2191 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

As it relates to his home runs, Michael Toglia has been very fortunate this year. His 49.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 36.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 76 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.89 vs Colorado Rockies 4.9

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.