San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 8/2/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 2, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup. The Reds, currently sitting at 52-56, are having a below-average season, while the Giants are slightly better at 54-56, marking them as an average team. With the Reds' last outing resulting in a disappointing 13-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs, they will be eager to bounce back against a Giants squad that recently secured a 1-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has a Win/Loss record of 9-7 and a solid ERA of 3.38 this season. However, his 5.05 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year. Abbott's last start was underwhelming, as he allowed 4 earned runs over just 4 innings. Conversely, the Giants will counter with Kyle Harrison, who boasts a 6-4 record and a 3.69 ERA. Harrison's last start was impressive, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run and 11 strikeouts, showcasing his potential to dominate.

Offensively, the Reds rank 18th in the league, but their best hitter, Elly De La Cruz, has been a bright spot, contributing significantly with 70 runs and 18 home runs this season. In contrast, the Giants' offense ranks 13th overall but struggles with power, sitting 23rd in home runs.

Given the projections, the Reds are expected to score around 4.81 runs, while the Giants are projected to score 5.16 runs. With Cincinnati's bullpen ranked 28th and San Francisco's at 1st, the Giants may hold an edge in the late innings. As both teams vie for a crucial win, bettors should keep an eye on how these dynamics play out in what is anticipated to be a competitive game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

In his last GS, Kyle Harrison was on point and notched 11 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 97.3-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.6) provides evidence that T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 20.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+11.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 84 games (+6.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+8.05 Units / 28% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.16 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.79

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