San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 8/3/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On August 3, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park in a pivotal National League matchup. Both teams are struggling to stay relevant this season; the Reds currently sit at 52-56, while the Giants are slightly ahead at 54-56. This game is particularly important for the Reds as they aim to find consistency in their performances amidst a below-average season.

In their last outing, the Giants secured a narrow victory over the Reds, with Blake Snell throwing a no-hitter for San Francisco. As they face off again, the starting pitchers will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Hunter Greene, projected to start for the Reds, holds an impressive ERA of 2.97 this season and ranks as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced statistics. However, he also has a high walk rate of 9.6%, which could prove problematic against a Giants lineup that has drawn the 6th most walks in the league.

On the other hand, Kyle Harrison, who will take the mound for the Giants, has been less reliable, with a 3.69 ERA and rankings that suggest he is a below-average pitcher. Harrison is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings on average, which may put additional pressure on the Giants' bullpen, despite its current status as the best in MLB.

The Reds' offense ranks 18th in MLB, showcasing average capability but struggles with a low batting average, ranking 27th overall. In contrast, the Giants sit at 13th for offensive performance, though their power numbers are lacking with a rank of 23rd in home runs.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Reds entering as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, they could capitalize on Greene's strengths and the Giants' pitching vulnerabilities. If Hunter Greene can limit walks, the Reds have a solid chance to secure a win and build momentum in this crucial series.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Cincinnati Reds have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, bats like Mike Yastrzemski who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 97-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 94 games (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.03 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.98

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