San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the San Francisco Giants at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions this season. The Orioles, with an 84-68 record, are having a strong season and are in the mix for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Giants, sitting at 74-78, are experiencing an average season and are unlikely to make a postseason push.

This interleague matchup features a compelling pitching duel between Baltimore's Zach Eflin and San Francisco's Logan Webb. Eflin, ranked as the 28th-best starting pitcher in MLB, has a 10-9 record with a solid 3.55 ERA over 26 starts. His projections for this game suggest he could allow 2.2 earned runs on average, while striking out 5.8 batters. However, his tendency to allow 5.3 hits and 0.8 walks per game could be a concern against the Giants.

On the other side, Logan Webb, ranked 11th, brings his elite status to the mound with a 12-10 record and a 3.53 ERA this season. Despite his high groundball rate, which could neutralize Baltimore's power-heavy lineup, Webb's projections indicate he might allow 5.9 hits and 1.1 walks, while striking out 5.1 batters on average.

Offensively, the Orioles boast the 7th-best lineup in MLB, ranking 2nd in home runs, which could be a key factor against Webb's groundball tendencies. Meanwhile, the Giants' offense ranks 21st overall and struggles with consistency, ranking 20th in batting average and 19th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 55% win probability, aligning with the betting markets. With both teams' bullpens at opposite ends of the spectrum—Baltimore's ranked 27th and San Francisco's 6th—this game could come down to late-inning performances.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to league average, Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 7.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Mike Yastrzemski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin's curveball percentage has decreased by 7.9% from last season to this one (26.5% to 18.6%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 37 games (+17.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 65 away games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Logan Webb has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.79 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.96

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