San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on September 18, 2024, the stakes are high for the Orioles, who are currently enjoying a strong season with an 84-67 record. Meanwhile, the Giants sit at 73-78, struggling to find their rhythm this year. In their last outing, the were shut out by the Giants in a 10-0 blowout.

Their matchup tonight pits right-hander Dean Kremer against fellow righty Hayden Birdsong. Kremer has had a mixed bag of results this season, holding a 7-9 record with a 4.10 ERA, ranking him as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His projection for today suggests he’ll average 5.5 innings pitched while allowing around 2.4 earned runs, which is solid. However, he does struggle with hits and walks, which could be concerning against a team like the Giants, whose offense, despite being ranked 21st in MLB, has shown flashes of potential.

On the other hand, Birdsong has been less effective, with a 3-5 record and a 4.74 ERA. He projects to pitch only 4.5 innings today, which could be problematic against the Orioles’ powerful lineup, currently ranked 2nd in MLB with 212 home runs this season. Birdsong's high flyball rate could be a recipe for disaster, especially with the Orioles' ability to capitalize on such opportunities.

The projections favor the Orioles, who have an implied team total of 4.50 runs compared to the Giants' low total of 3.50 runs. With a strong offense and a significant home field advantage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the Orioles look poised to continue their winning ways against a Giants team that is struggling to find its footing.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.4-mph decline from last season's 94.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Colton Cowser has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 81.9-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 85 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.39 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games at home (+15.50 Units / 82% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.04 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.68

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