San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 7/2/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on July 2, 2024, at Truist Park, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season. The Braves, with a solid 46-36 record, are having a good season, while the Giants are struggling at 41-44. This National League matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they look to gain momentum.

The Braves will send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound, who has been a standout performer this year. With a 6-2 Win/Loss record and an impressive 1.70 ERA over 14 starts, Lopez ranks as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.68 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. Lopez projects to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters on average today.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Hayden Birdsong, who has had a rough start to his season. In his lone start, Birdsong posted a 5.79 ERA, though his 4.80 xFIP indicates he might improve. The projections have him pitching 4.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 4.6 batters on average.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, with average performances in batting average (15th) and home runs (14th). Their power is complemented by Jarred Kelenic, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .333 with a .956 OPS, 2 home runs, and 5 RBIs. The Giants' offense ranks slightly better at 13th, with an 11th-place ranking in team batting average. David Villar has been their best hitter recently, boasting a .400 average and a 1.264 OPS over the last week.

Bullpen-wise, both teams are strong, with the Braves ranked 6th and the Giants an impressive 3rd in MLB. This could be a low-scoring affair, especially with the game total set at 8.5 runs.

With the Braves being significant favorites at -185, and the Giants at +160, Atlanta is expected to have the upper hand. The Braves' implied team total is 4.85 runs, while the Giants' is 3.65 runs. Given Lopez's performance this season and the Braves' solid bullpen, Atlanta seems well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

LaMonte Wade Jr. has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 6.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to his 19.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Reynaldo Lopez will ring up an average of 5.6 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+20.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+12.75 Units / 37% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.41 vs Atlanta Braves 4.74

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