San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 7/4/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As we approach the midsummer classic, the Atlanta Braves host the San Francisco Giants on July 4, 2024, at Truist Park. This matchup marks the third game in the series, featuring two teams with contrasting seasons thus far. The Braves stand at 47-37, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants, at 42-45, have faced challenges.

The projected pitching duel pits Charlie Morton of the Braves against Logan Webb of the Giants. Morton holds a 5-4 record with a respectable 3.89 ERA over 15 starts. Meanwhile, Webb, ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, boasts a 6-6 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA over 18 starts. Despite Webb's strong surface numbers, his 4.14 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could regress.

Atlanta's offense, ranked 14th in the league, squares off against Webb. The Braves have shown balanced power, ranking 14th in home runs, but have struggled on the base paths with a 27th place in stolen bases. Austin Riley has been heating up, notching 2 home runs and a .905 OPS over the past week.

San Francisco's offense, ranked 13th in MLB, will look to back their ace. Michael Conforto has been a bright spot recently, posting a .300 average and a stellar 1.162 OPS over his last five games. Despite some inconsistencies, the Giants' bullpen, ranked 3rd, provides a solid backend to their pitching efforts.

For sports bettors, the lines suggest a tightly contested game. The Braves are slight favorites with a moneyline of -125, implying a win probability of 53%, while the Giants stand at +105. Atlanta's projected run total of 4.14 slightly edges out San Francisco's 3.86, reflecting a closely matched battle.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Logan Webb (57.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Atlanta's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has been lucky this year, compiling a .396 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .335 — a .061 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (63.1% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jarred Kelenic has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+16.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 87 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.61 vs Atlanta Braves 3.95

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