San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/5/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. As the home team, the Diamondbacks will look to turn the tide on their below-average season with a win against their National League West rivals, the Giants.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, while the Giants will counter with right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks. Montgomery, ranked as the #137 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown mixed results this season with a win-loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 5.48. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, Hicks, ranked #75 in the same Power Rankings, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.70 and a 3.80 xFIP, indicating potential regression in his performance.

When it comes to offensive rankings, the Diamondbacks hold the #12 spot in MLB, while the Giants sit at #16. The Diamondbacks excel in stolen bases, ranking third in the league, while the Giants struggle in this area, ranking second to last.

Considering the team totals, the Diamondbacks are favored with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Giants have an implied win probability of 45%. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

The Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the strength of their offense. However, the Giants' solid bullpen and Jordan Hicks' above-average performance may pose challenges for the Diamondbacks' hitters. It will be an exciting matchup between these division rivals as they vie for a crucial win in the National League West.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Because groundball pitchers hold a notable edge over groundball hitters, Jordan Hicks and his 51.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As it relates to his home runs, Michael Conforto has been unlucky this year. His 25.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 57.3.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The San Francisco Giants have been the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Montgomery has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.3% more often this season (52.1%) than he did last year (46.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Since the start of last season, Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 4th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks hitters collectively grade out 28th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 6.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+7.90 Units / 25% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.6 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.