San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick For 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mason Black - Giants
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks gear up to face the San Francisco Giants on September 25, 2024, at Chase Field, this National League West clash will see the D-Backs looking to bolster their playoff position with a strong finish to the regular season. Sitting at 87-71, Arizona is enjoying a successful campaign and is in the hunt for a playoff berth, while the Giants, sitting at 79-79, are having an average season and are likely out of the playoff picture.

Arizona will send Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen, who boasts a 13-6 record and a solid 3.74 ERA in 27 starts, is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB. He brings a strong presence on the mound, and the projections suggest he will turn in another solid performance. His ability to keep runners off the bases, particularly limiting free passes, will be crucial in this matchup against a Giants offense that ranks 21st overall.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Mason Black, who has struggled in his limited action this season. With a 1-4 record and a 5.88 ERA across eight starts, Black has been one of the weaker pitchers in the league. Facing a D-Backs offense that ranks 1st in power and 2nd in batting average, Black will have his work cut out for him. Despite his misfortune with an inflated ERA compared to his xFIP, Black's tendency to give up fly balls could be a liability against Arizona's home run capabilities.

The D-Backs' impressive offensive firepower makes them a dominant force, and with a high implied team total of 4.99 runs, they are heavily favored in both the betting markets and by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, with a 66% win probability. Meanwhile, the Giants, with a modest implied team total of 3.51 runs, will need more than a little luck to upset the odds in this contest.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Mason Black's 2134-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 22nd percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 98.3-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average starter, Zac Gallen has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 6.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Mason Black.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 119 games (+30.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 away games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+13.30 Units / 121% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.91 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.29

Get daily MLB picks here.