The San Diego Padres will face the Washington Nationals on Saturday in the second game of their three-game series. San Diego enters as a solid favorite after winning the opening game of the series on Friday night. Here, I take a closer look at this National League matchup and make my Padres vs Nationals prediction in the betting markets.
Our Padres vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Padres moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★
- Bonus Bets For This Game: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets, win or lose, for this MLB matchup!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 19, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs Mitchell Parker
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: MASN and SDPA
Padres vs Nationals Odds
| Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|
| Padres -156 | Over 9 (-108) |
| Nationals +128 | Under 9 (-112) |
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
- Darvish: Yu Darvish is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA on the season so far. He allowed 4 ER in 3.2 innings vs Arizona and 2 ER in 4.2 inning against Philly. But extra rest and a Nationals lineup that has struggled this year could help him get back into form.
- Mitchell Parker: Mitchell Parker carries a 5‑10 record with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. At home, he’s getting hit hard, with a .267 average allowed. The Padres’ lineup won’t be afraid of him.
Bullpen Usage
- Padres: The Padres have the second-best bullpen ERA in MLB this season. If Darvish struggles in this game the bullpen could bail him out.
- Nationals: The Nationals have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball this season. If this game is close late, you can’t like their chances against a potent Padres lineup.
Recent Team Streaks
- Padres: The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games heading into this contest.
- Nationals: Washington has dropped five games in a row entering this evening.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Manny Machado | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Yu Darvish | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres lead the season series between these teams by a 3-1 margin.
- San Diego has won three straight games over the Nats after dropping their first meeting in June.
- The Nationals are just 18-29 at home this season.
Padres vs Nationals Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 6 – Nationals 4
Win Probability: Padres 56 %, Nationals 44 %
Final Thoughts
I’m not entirely confident in Yu Darvish at this point in the 2025 season. But he still seems like a better option than backing the Nationals right now. Washington has lost five straight games and four of those losses were by two runs or more. I expect more problems for the Nats tonight and for the Padres to get the better of them for the second game in a row.
