San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 7/18/2025

The San Diego Padres travel to Washington to face the struggling Washington Nationals on Friday night. The Padres enter the second half of the season holding onto the final NL Wild Card spot by a slim margin. They will look to improve their playoff chances with a win over a losing team tonight. Keep reading to get my breakdown of this National League contest, including my Padres vs Nationals prediction.

Our Padres vs Nationals Pick

• Pick: Padres -1.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals
• Date & Time: Friday, July 18, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Michael Soroka
• Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
• Broadcast: MASN (home), SDPA (away)

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Dylan Cease owns a 3-9 record and a 4.88 ERA. But he has a strong 29% strikeout rate and 3.69 FIP. That suggests he’s been more effective than his surface-level numbers would indicate.
• Michael Soroka has a 3-7 record and a 5.35 ERA. His inability to miss bats and induce soft contact is a liability against San Diego’s power-heavy top of the order.

Bullpen usage

The Padres’ bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and ranks second in that statistical category among 30 MLB teams. Washington’s bullpen has the worst ERA in the league at 5.88. San Diego has a significant advantage in this area.

Recent team streaks

The Padres had a three-game winning streak snapped in their final game before the All-Star break. They were beaten 2-1 by the Philadelphia Phillies before the start of the break. Washington has dropped four straight games going into the second half of the year.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Padres lead the season series between these teams 2-1.
• San Diego is 30-30 in night games on the year. Washington is 25-30 in night games.
• Washington has gone over the total 54.4% of the time this year. San Diego has stayed under the total 58.1% of the time.

Padres vs Nationals Model Projection

Score Projection: Padres 6 – Nationals 4

Win Probability: Padres 57%, Nationals 43%

Final Thoughts

Dylan Cease has not given bettors a ton to trust throughout this season. But he should be able to do enough to lead the Padres to a convincing win over the Nationals tonight. Cease’s ability to rack up strikeouts in bunches should cause problems for this Nationals lineup. That should mean a win by two or more runs for the visitors on Friday.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.