San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 5/22/2025

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the San Diego Padres on May 22, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum as they navigate the season. The Blue Jays sit at an even 24-24, while the Padres boast a solid 27-20 record. This interleague matchup holds significance for both teams, with the Padres eyeing a series win after narrowly losing to the Blue Jays in yesterday's contest.

On the mound, Bowden Francis is projected to start for Toronto. Despite a rough season characterized by a 2-6 record and a troubling 5.63 ERA, advanced projections indicate he may have been unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 4.64. Francis, who has started 9 games this year, is facing a Padres offense that has struggled with power, ranking 25th in the league in home runs. This could play to Francis's advantage as he’s a high-flyball pitcher, making it difficult for the Padres to capitalize on his pitches.

Opposing him will be Stephen Kolek, who has had a strong start to the year with a 2-1 record and an impressive 2.33 ERA in just 3 starts. However, his xFIP of 3.44 suggests he might regress. The Blue Jays offense, ranked 20th overall, faces a challenge against Kolek's solid pitching, but they have shown the ability to hit for average, ranking 13th in batting average.

With both bullpens performing well—Toronto ranking 4th and San Diego 7th—this game could hinge on which starter can last longer. The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating that oddsmakers expect a competitive contest. The projections suggest an implied team total of 4.45 runs for the Blue Jays, signaling they may have a slight edge in this matchup, especially considering the struggles of the Padres' offense against Francis's flyball tendencies.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Stephen Kolek has compiled a terrific 2.33 ERA over his last 3 outings.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Manny Machado has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bo Bichette has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 100.8-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.18, Toronto Blue Jays 4.63

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

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