San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 5/21/2025

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on May 21, 2025, at Rogers Centre, both teams find themselves in different stages of their seasons. The Blue Jays, currently sitting at 23-24, are attempting to find consistency, while the Padres boast a stronger record at 27-19, signaling a solid performance thus far. In their previous matchup, the Blue Jays emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Padres to bounce back in this second game of the series.

The pitching matchup features Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays, who has struggled to find his rhythm this season, posting a 3-4 record and a 4.59 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.78 xFIP indicates he might perform better moving forward. Gausman faces a Padres offense that has ranked 4th in MLB in batting average, but they have only hit 41 home runs this season, ranking 6th least in the league. This could provide Gausman an advantage, as his tendency for fly balls may not be as detrimental against a power-deficient lineup.

On the mound for the Padres is Randy Vasquez, who has a commendable 3.45 ERA but a concerning 5.94 xFIP, suggesting he may have benefitted from good fortune. With a low strikeout rate of 11.7%, he might find it challenging against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for fewest strikeouts.

Despite the Blue Jays’ average offense, which ranks 19th overall but 12th in batting average, their solid bullpen—ranked 2nd in MLB—could play a crucial role in turning the tide in this matchup. With a high implied team total of 4.66 runs according to current odds, Toronto may have the upper hand if their hitters can capitalize on Vasquez's vulnerabilities. Ultimately, this game promises to be a pivotal moment for both teams as they navigate their respective paths this season.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.226) may lead us to conclude that Elias Diaz has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .259 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's sinker percentage has fallen by 5.3% from last season to this one (5.4% to 0.1%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Anthony Santander has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games (+6.15 Units / 109% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.09, Toronto Blue Jays 5.19

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

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