San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 7/4/2024

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the San Diego Padres at Globe Life Field on July 4, 2024, the eyes of baseball fans and bettors will be on this intriguing Interleague matchup. While the Padres carry a winning record of 47-43, the Rangers lag behind at 39-47, indicating divergent trajectories for these two teams. Adding some extra tension to this meeting, San Diego took the last game from Texas with a 6-4 victory on July 3.

Both starting pitchers bring solid resumes to the mound. Texas will rely on right-hander Max Scherzer, who sports an excellent 1.74 ERA and a so-so 1-1 record through just two starts. Though his ERA suggests dominance, his 4.43 xFIP hints at potential regression. Scherzer's recent outing on June 28 saw him manage 5 innings, conceding 2 earned runs with 4 strikeouts, indicative of his mixed form lately.

On the other side, the Padres will send Michael King, also a right-hander, who has delivered a solid season with a 6-5 record and a 3.61 ERA over 17 starts. His last performance on June 29 was impressive: 6 innings, 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts. It’s clear both pitchers have the capability to make this a close contest.

The lineups offer contrasting profiles. The Rangers' offense ranks 19th overall, hitting for a middle-of-the-pack batting average (.18) and delivering an average power output (15th in home runs). Recent standout Nate Lowe, hitting .417 with a 1.250 OPS over the last 7 games, will look to carry the team's momentum.

Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense ranks 10th, driven by elite hitting (2nd in batting average) and good power (9th in home runs). Jurickson Profar has been a key contributor this season with a .314 average and .879 OPS. Jackson Merrill, in particular, has been on a tear, hitting .409 with a 1.182 OPS in the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers hold a slight edge with a 54% win probability. Current betting lines favor Texas at -140 with an implied 56% win probability, slightly above the projections. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the quality of the starting pitching.

As these teams square off for the third game in the series, the slight edge seems to favor the Rangers despite their recent loss. Both pitchers are capable of keeping the scoring low, making this a fascinating matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's 92-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph decrease from last season's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ha-seong Kim's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Corey Seager has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 95.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.35 Units / 42% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.96 vs Texas Rangers 4.03

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.