San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Padres
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the San Diego Padres on August 30, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing losses in their last outings. The Rays, currently sporting a record of 66-67, are in the midst of an average season and recently fell to the Mariners by a score of 6-2. Meanwhile, the Padres, with a 76-60 record and a solid season overall, lost to the Cardinals 4-1.

This Interleague matchup features two pitchers with contrasting trajectories. Taj Bradley, projected to start for the Rays, has been a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster season, ranking as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 6-8 record and 3.77 ERA, Bradley's high strikeout rate of 26.9% could be an asset against a Padres offense that ranks as the least strikeout-prone in MLB. However, Bradley's recent performance was shaky, as he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start against the Mariners.

On the other hand, Martin Perez, the Padres' starter, has struggled this season, with a 4.60 ERA and a troubling 5.56 xERA. His last outing was abbreviated, resulting in 1 earned run over just 4 innings. This could spell trouble for the Padres as they face a Rays lineup that, despite ranking 27th in overall offense, is still capable of capitalizing on Perez's inconsistencies.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Rays may have a better chance of winning this game than the current betting lines indicate. The leading MLB projection system sees Tampa Bay as a significant favorite with a projected win probability of 61%, compared to their current moneyline of -120. The Rays are expected to score around 4.53 runs, while the Padres are projected to muster only 3.72 runs, making this matchup one to watch as both teams aim to regain their footing in the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (1903 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (1977 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

David Peralta has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano profiles as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tallying 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Taj Bradley ranks in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 110 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 away games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• David Peralta has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 27 games (+17.00 Units / 63% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.72 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.53

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.