San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 26, 2024, they find themselves navigating the middle of the pack in the National League, currently sitting at 65-65. In contrast, the Padres are enjoying a solid season with a 74-58 record, showcasing their playoff aspirations. This game marks a crucial opportunity for the Cardinals to close the gap against a competitive opponent.

In their last outings, the Cardinals and Padres both picked up wins and will look for another to start this National League series. Starting for St. Louis is Kyle Gibson, whose 7-5 record suggests some competitiveness, despite being ranked as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB. Gibson's ERA sits at 4.22, which is above average, but his 5.03 xERA indicates potential luck in his performance thus far. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, but concerns arise given his high projected hits allowed (6.0).

On the other side, the Padres will trot out Randy Vasquez, whose struggles have placed him among the least effective pitchers in the league. Vasquez carries a 3-6 record and a 4.63 ERA, but his alarming 5.92 xERA suggests he may be due for a rough outing, projected to pitch just 4.8 innings with 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Padres are thriving, ranked 8th best in MLB and leading the league in batting average. In contrast, the Cardinals rank just 19th overall, making this matchup even more challenging. The projections suggest a close game, with St. Louis having a 53% chance to win according to leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Over his last 3 games started, Randy Vasquez has experienced a big spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2410 rpm over the whole season to 2487 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph EV last season has dropped off to 87.5-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year. His 26.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Rating 3rd-least steep in Major League Baseball this year, St. Louis Cardinals bats collectively have recorded a 11.8° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable stat to study power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 41% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.68

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