San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 28, 2024, the stakes are high, particularly with the Cardinals having recently lost a close game against the same Padres, falling 7-5 the day prior. Despite their average record of 65-67, the Cardinals are competing fiercely as they look to gain ground in the National League, while the Padres, at 76-58, are enjoying a solid season and battling among the top contenders.

On the mound, the Cardinals will turn to Andre Pallante, who has shown promise this season despite a mixed record of 6-6 and a respectable ERA of 3.84. Pallante's recent outing was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings with just 1 earned run, striking out 5 batters. However, facing the low-strikeout Padres lineup, which leads the league in the least strikeouts per game, he may find it challenging to capitalize on his strengths today.

On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will take the hill for San Diego. Musgrove's recent form is noteworthy, as he delivered a stellar performance in his last start, completing 7 innings without allowing a run while striking out 9 batters. His ERA stands at 4.43, indicating that he’s been average this year, but the projections suggest that he may have benefited from some good fortune, as his xERA of 5.17 is significantly higher.

The matchup underscores a critical disparity in offensive capabilities. The Padres boast the 8th best offense in MLB and lead the league in batting average at .287, while the Cardinals sit at 18th, struggling to find consistent power, ranking 22nd in home runs.

Despite this, the leading MLB projection system indicates that the Cardinals have a slightly better chance of winning than the odds suggest, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value. With the Cardinals projected to score around 4.23 runs, they'll need their bats to come alive against Musgrove if they hope to flip the script from yesterday’s loss.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove has tallied 15 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Manny Machado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 95.5-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's high utilization rate of his fastball (69.9% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.9) suggests that Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year with his 26.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 away games (+15.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.12 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.96

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