San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 7/26/2025
The San Diego Padres will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday night at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have taken care of business at home so far in this series. They have won each of the first two games of this series at home and will look for a third straight win over the Padres tonight. Before first pitch from Busch Stadium, continue reading to get my Padres vs Cardinals prediction.
Our Padres vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 26, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Randy Vásquez (3-4, 3.73 ERA) vs Matthew Liberatore (6-7, 4.13 ERA)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Pitching Form: Randy Vásquez has shown promise with a 3.73 ERA. But his 3-4 record indicates both a lack of consistency and run support. Matthew Liberatore has a 6-7 record this season. But he has a respectable 4.13 ERA and has been effective at home.
- Bullpen Usage: Both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in bullpen ERA. The Padres are number one in the league in that category but the Cardinals have performed better with their bullpen through the first two games of this four-game series.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Padres are on a four-game losing streak going into this contest. The Cardinals have won two consecutive games and have bounced back nicely from losing their last series to the Colorado Rockies.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Randy Vásquez | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cardinals lead the season series between these teams 2-0.
- San Diego has been held to three runs or less in three of their last four games.
- The Padres are 31-20 at home this season. The Padres are 24-31 on the road.
Padres vs Cardinals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Padres 4 – Cardinals 6
- Win Probability: Padres 44%, Cardinals 56%
Final Thoughts
The Padres have been struggling mightily lately. That has been especially true on the road. I will back the Cardinals to win here thanks to how well they have been playing at home throughout the year. Liberatore will have a solid outing and the St. Louis bullpen will continue to outperform the top-ranked bullpen of the Padres.
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